Strategic Thinking – brett boston

A recent article in Good Design discussed how three type font designers are creating a cohesive look for the City of Chattanooga. All on their own. Without asking for permission or having a commission. I find it to be an incredible story of how vision, strategy, and change can occur, without having to check in with the power’s that be, or leverage a hot new technology or market trend.

For strategists, fonts might seem a strange beginning point for a discussion on shared vision, shared future, and a major urban planning effort. Even more surprising is the ignition point for the change happened in a coffee shop, when two of America’s font designers (this is a job?) started a conversation on type fonts that grew into a vision for their community.

How do we get from font designs to large-scale urban planning, change and shared vision. Easily it seems. Using fonts as a means to a design end is similar to what Apple or Nike do for product marketing. Creating a unique and representative look and feel is a standard marketing and branding strategy. The rub is that businesses generally do not start planning efforts with a font and move to a product. It’s typically the other way around.

From a simple discussion on fonts, the designers segued into how to use font to create a branding strategy for an entire city. It is a bold notion; visionary, radical, insane, and really, really smart. For all of us that have tried to do any form of urban or community planning its simplicity is sublime and enviable. Sure, these guys will get their share of egg-throwers, font-wannabee critics, and folks that are just against anything (and for nothing). And yes, the change effort will require just as much work as any traditional planning effort. The same amount of convincing, selling, involving, political wrangling, and public input. They will need the same commitment to see it through as all planners to create any plan that involves change. But darn it, you just have to admit that it looks like a lot more fun to do it their way.

Business strategists and community planners take note. The sparks that ignites strategies and large-scale change are occurring more and more in the realm of social media technologies, art and the design world. Staying current with cultural trends, not just marketing trends, business, and “go to” sources for competitive trends, will round-out your strategy palette.

Opinion, Scenario Planning, Strategic Thinking

Are rising gasoline prices due to lower demand?

February 16, 2012 Group Solutions

A recent article in BusinessWeek, “Rising Gas Prices mot Demand-driven” makes the case that lower demand for gasoline is the culprit causing the recent price to climb. Now that is counterintuitive to all those that studied economics of supply and demand. Microeconomics teaches that when demand drops, prices should drop.

Looks like higher prices are caused by the “crack spread”, the cost for refineries to buy the oil, crack it into petroleum product, and sell it. Refineries are apparently closing down, due to the economics of the crack spread, which pinches the supply side of the equations and keeps prices high; and in fact is driving them higher. The current predictions are that the US will see $4 per gallon by May at a time we are using less. This argument implies that the economic constraints within the petroleum market are now working counter to supply and demand. Or more serious, the market economic model for petroleum is broken.

What are some implications?

A very disturbing scenario is $4 per gallon is considered by some industry watchers as the place where the national economies can stall – the price for energy reaches such a high cost that manufacturing, travel, and power production are negatively affected, reducing or reversing the recovery underway.

Another more troubling scenario is that Petroleum manufacturers are creating their own price points by restricting supply (closing refineries) and thus elevating prices. We can be sure that a case will be made that they are “artificially” keeping prices high to make sure profits remain high.

The net result of $4 gasoline is that demand will continue to drop, setting off another round of counter to supply and demand economic price increases. If energy is indeed market-driven, then we may be seeing fundamental changes occurring in the petroleum sector that will have cataclysmic and rapid changes on how the US public views and consumes energy.

The implication for broad sectors of the economy – automotive, alternative fuels, manufacturing – are clear. If these sectors follow observed historical trends when facing sharp increases in petroleum pricing, we can expect a rapid movement to high fuel mileage vehicles, demand for more domestic drilling, and growth in alternative energy production. This cyclic dance has been going on since the OPEC shockwave in the 70’s. Prices go up, people make consumption changes to reduce demand. Alternative energy sources start a mini-boom. Then prices “miraculously” go down. But if the “crack spread” has in fact shifted and the economics of refining petroleum has changed, we will not see prices below $4 as a consequence of reduced demand. Pricing will continue to rise in the face of falling US demand.

A lack of a consensus on a national energy policy, and the ongoing politicization of the issue, has prevented objective dialogue and discussion on the US supply and demand for petroleum. Cheap energy is and always has been, the main driver of the US economic miracle. Expect turmoil, rapid price increases, and gas-bag punditry on the solutions. You should be use to it by now. What you shouldn’t expect is a rational discussion or national policy aimed at keeping America competitive by transition from a petroleum-based economy to an economy that can sustain itself for another century or two.

brett boston, Governance, Operational Planning, Public Engagement Strategies, Scenario Planning, Strategic Planning, Strategic Thinking, Strategy

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February 4, 2012February 10, 2012 Group Solutions

Short-term thinking is in the ascendancy.

A lack of long-term perspective is impacting all aspects of modern society:

There are no national strategies on energy, future technology development, and for the first time in generations, no societal commitments on a shared vision for a better future.
Short-term focus on huge investment returns is leading to expectations of returns well beyond what was once respectable. This is driving investor expectations that can only be met through complex derivative and mathematically driven financial instruments that few understand, and that are so highly leveraged, that the global economy now pivots on unexpected global incidents.
Most organizations are head down in tinkering around the edges, with few attempting to reinvent themselves with dynamic and innovative models of organizational design and product innovation.

My posts will focus on the value of strategy and shared vision to addressing some aspects of these issues. I will cover the creation of informal multi-organizational partnerships and how they can cooperatively serve to address increasingly complex issues. How to create intentional strategies that move the needle toward a shared vision held by any organization or multi-organizational entity. As importantly, we will also explore the value of involving a broad array of interested, but nontraditional partners in today’s strategic thinking and show how inclusion of these new and unconventional players complicates planning, but greatly improves implementation.

Together, let’s explore what’s possible in strategic planning and vision setting.

Looking forward to a creative and fruitful dialogue.

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Category: Strategic Thinking

Can a type font help a city make a comeback?

Are rising gasoline prices due to lower demand?

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